Buy Put

Source: Long Put, pg. 94-96, Fontanills, G., trade options online

Usage: You are Bearish, i.e.., you expect Philip Morris to fall. Implied Volatility is low, you want to pay a low premium to buy the put.

Profits: Open ended if MO falls below 60 at expiration

Losses: Limited to amount paid for option ($512.50) if MO is above 60 at expiration

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Quoted profitModel profitQuoted PriceModel price Delta
(Shares)		GammaVegaTheta
$ 50.50 $ 38.87 5 5/8 5 1/2 -53.1 3.6294 $ 12.13 $ -1.87

Statistical Volatility Estimate For Probability Calcs: %

Days From TodayProb of ProfitExpected ProfitOdds of Success
36 44.6% $ 20.67 1.2 to 1
72 40.5% $ 6.50 1.0 to 1
Expiration 38.9% $ -6.95 1.0 to 1

Green is current market conditions
X MO @
Quote = 5 5/8, Model = 5 1/2, Delta = -53, IV = 35.7%, IV_EST = 34.8%, Volume = 11, OI = 349
Bid = 5 3/8, Ask = 5 7/8,