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| Calendar Spreads |
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A calendar spread is composed of two options of the same type (both calls or both puts) with the same exercise price, different expiration months and opposing positions. Calendar spreads are also called Time Spreads. The Optionetics Platinum web site strategy matrix currently uses the abbreviation "TSpread" when referring to calendar spread option combinations. This discussion will show how to use the Optionetics Platinum tools to find and analyze a long ATM time spread that uses puts. ATM stands for At-The-Money and means that the option strike price is near the price of the stock when the option trade is purchased. We will be buying an ATM put that has a far month expiration and selling an ATM put that has a short month expiration. As time passes the short-month put will loose value faster than the long-term put. If the underlying stock stays near the option strike price, the short put will loose all value. The long put will still have time value left to go. If the near month put expires with the stock near the option strike price, we will get to keep the near month put credit and sell the far month put, capturing its remaining time value. One objective in buying the calendar spread is to have the short, near month option have higher implied volatility than the long, far month option. This means we receive a substantial credit to sell the near month put (we want near month implied volatility to be high ) and do not have to pay extra to buy the far month put ( far month implied volatility is lower). The net cost to buy the calendar spread will be low. It is interesting to see what happens in calendar spreads as the stock moves away from the ATM strike price. The time spread difference between the two options begins to collapse. As the stock decreases in price, the loss in value in the short put is offset by the increase in value of the long put. If the stock decreases far enough the trade becomes unprofitable, but the loss is limited. If the short put is assigned, you sell the far month long put to partially offset the loss incurred by the assignment. As the stock price increases, the loss in value of the long put is offset by the increased likelihood that you will keep the short put credit. The maximum upside loss is limited to the cost of the spread. In addition, you do not have to make any more trades to close out your positions and you save on commissions. Since you will not be assigned, you can wait for the possibility that the stock may eventually return to below the original strike price. The long put still has profit potential after the short put expires. A long ATM calendar spread can also increase in value if implied volatility increases. If implied volatility increases, both options increase in value, but the far month put will gain more value. The profit region will grow. The stock will often move away from the strike price that would normally cause the ATM long calendar spread to loose money. This movement can also cause implied volatility to increase. The calendar spread may not only hold value, but it can even increase in value as future uncertainty grows. These are then are the characteristics we are looking for in a long ATM calendar spread.
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| Creating a List of Favorable Stocks |
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Logging into the Optionsanalysis web site brings you to the Welcome page. You would normally use the most recent date. We are going to use a date in the recent past to show what happens to the calendar spread after the trade is put on and saved.
Create A Rank List is a tool to narrow our search for calendar spreads to a list of stocks that have our desired characteristics. The purpose of the tool is to create a stock list that we can input into another Optionsanalysis tool: Create A Search. We do this, because Create A Search is limited to 2000 trade searches. Only a few stocks (200 or less) in the Create A Search input list can max out the trade search limit. Create A Rank List, on the other hand, has no search limit. Create A Rank List can be used unwisely. Poorly chosen rankings can take a long time (> 2 minutes) and overload the server frustrating all online users. The steps shown below allow a user to rank all the online stocks for desired characteristics, and perform these rankings using reasonable server resources. First, use the Explosive or Quiet buttons to narrow the entire online stock list down to a manageable set. Explosive and Quiet are the two fastest responding rankers in the Create A Rank List web page. We will narrow the stock list by deciding on the stock price trading range we want to investigate. At the bottom right of the web page is the maximum and minimum price filters. We want low priced, but tradable stocks, so we set the min to 20 and the max to 80. If you are creating a stock list where statistical volatility is not a concern, the next thing you would do is:
However, in the calendar spread case we choose the 10 day SV / 90 day SV ranker. The min and max prices of 20 and 80 are also selected. We will click the Quiet button option. We want high volatility stocks that have recently settled down. We must make other choices before clicking the Quiet button.
Click the expensive button for Percentile IVs. This button can take a long time to create a ranking. The expensive button for Percentile IVs with a 500 stock input list and low server usage takes less than one minute to complete. The amount of time needed by the percentile IV ranker increases dramatically when the input stock list has more than 500 stocks.
After clicking the button, the Percentile IV ranking appears and the top category has been saved in Rank List 2. The first 10 stocks in this ranking appear below: |
| Rank | 7-150 Day Option Implied Volatility Ranking for 04-17-00 (since 10-20-99) | ||||
| Stock Option | High | Low | Last | Chg | 1-20 rank |
| 1) Lucent Technologies, Inc. (LU) | 81.32% | 34.43% | 62.17% | - 8.13% | 20 |
| 2) Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) | 61.11% | 9.17% | 48.03% | - 2.31% | 20 |
| 3) 3Com Corporation (COMS) | 109.15% | 48.04% | 103.46% | +21.31% | 20 |
| 4) Disney (The Walt) Holding Co. (DIS) | 53.97% | 30.25% | 49.61% | + 1.91% | 20 |
| 5) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) | 48.20% | 27.76% | 46.07% | - 2.13% | 20 |
| 6) Costco Companies, Inc. (COST) | 67.03% | 39.70% | 63.82% | + 7.80% | 20 |
| 7) Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO) | 44.26% | 27.44% | 41.78% | - 2.49% | 20 |
| 8) Knight/Trimark Group Inc (NITE) | 136.03% | 71.06% | 136.03% | +11.13% | 20 |
| 9) Intuit Corporation (INTU) | 134.34% | 66.37% | 111.73% | -22.61% | 20 |
| 10) Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) | 52.92% | 35.02% | 52.92% | + 3.21% | 20 |
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April 17, 2000 was a very volatile day. Over 100 stocks from our original 500 are in the top 20 category. The ranking again resorts to a volume ranking when stocks have the same category. Hence, the above top 10 stocks all tend to be well known companies.
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| Performing a Calendar Spread Search |
We get to decide the minimum days to the near expiration month, the maximum days to the far expiration month and the minimum and maximum days between calendar legs. Our choices are 60, 180, 60 and 120. We will expect trades to be found with expirations and time spreads between July and November.
Click the "Search 4-17-00 Now" button. The top three results are shown below. |
| I searched 429 trades and found 10 satisfying your criteria. |
| Option search for Criteria Name on date : 04-17-00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The second trade uses strikes too far from the current close and is not considered. The first (Schlumberger) and third (Knight/Trimark Group Inc.) trades look attractive. If the stock goes up the most the trades can loose is the net purchase cost of the trade($62and $175, respectively).If the stock goes down the losses are limited to $149 and $218, respectively. The maximum profits are $575 and $437 if the stocks close at the strike values when the near month option expires and the short put was not assigned. Click the strategy link in each case. We will use the NITE trade to show the risk graph. The NITE ATM put Calendar spread risk graph, created by the Optionsanalysis.com risk graph tool, is shown below. |
The y-axis scale is for the stock price.
There are two x-axis scales.
The left x-axis scale is time.
The value plotted in the left graph is the high-low-open-close bars for the stock price.
The right x-axis scale is profit and/or loss of the option trade.
The four lines plotted are the potential profit and losses of the option trade as the stock price varies.
Each line is for a different time in the future.
The graph is only valid up to the expiration of the near month July option.
The black line shows the final possible outcomes of the option trade as the stock price is varied between 20 and 90 at the July expiration date.
The trade resembles a Buy ATM put butterfly in that there is a profit region, dependent on high implied Volatility.
Losses are finite.
The big difference is that the calendar spread trade only requires the purchase of two options instead of the four options needed for the butterfly.
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