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 Calendar Spreads

A calendar spread is composed of two options of the same type (both calls or both puts) with the same exercise price, different expiration months and opposing positions. Calendar spreads are also called Time Spreads. The Optionetics Platinum web site strategy matrix currently uses the abbreviation "TSpread" when referring to calendar spread option combinations.

This discussion will show how to use the Optionetics Platinum tools to find and analyze a long ATM time spread that uses puts. ATM stands for At-The-Money and means that the option strike price is near the price of the stock when the option trade is purchased. We will be buying an ATM put that has a far month expiration and selling an ATM put that has a short month expiration. As time passes the short-month put will loose value faster than the long-term put. If the underlying stock stays near the option strike price, the short put will loose all value. The long put will still have time value left to go. If the near month put expires with the stock near the option strike price, we will get to keep the near month put credit and sell the far month put, capturing its remaining time value.

One objective in buying the calendar spread is to have the short, near month option have higher implied volatility than the long, far month option. This means we receive a substantial credit to sell the near month put (we want near month implied volatility to be high ) and do not have to pay extra to buy the far month put ( far month implied volatility is lower). The net cost to buy the calendar spread will be low.

It is interesting to see what happens in calendar spreads as the stock moves away from the ATM strike price. The time spread difference between the two options begins to collapse. As the stock decreases in price, the loss in value in the short put is offset by the increase in value of the long put. If the stock decreases far enough the trade becomes unprofitable, but the loss is limited. If the short put is assigned, you sell the far month long put to partially offset the loss incurred by the assignment.

As the stock price increases, the loss in value of the long put is offset by the increased likelihood that you will keep the short put credit. The maximum upside loss is limited to the cost of the spread. In addition, you do not have to make any more trades to close out your positions and you save on commissions. Since you will not be assigned, you can wait for the possibility that the stock may eventually return to below the original strike price. The long put still has profit potential after the short put expires.

A long ATM calendar spread can also increase in value if implied volatility increases. If implied volatility increases, both options increase in value, but the far month put will gain more value. The profit region will grow. The stock will often move away from the strike price that would normally cause the ATM long calendar spread to loose money. This movement can also cause implied volatility to increase. The calendar spread may not only hold value, but it can even increase in value as future uncertainty grows.

These are then are the characteristics we are looking for in a long ATM calendar spread.

  1. High near month implied volatility and lower far month implied volatility. (Low cost to buy the spread).
  2. Near term low statistical volatility (also called historical volatility) but with higher longer term statistical volatility. (Characteristics of a volatile stock that may have settled down recently)
  3. A stock with a recent trading range around the chosen ATM strike. (We want to avoid a trending stock)
  4. A stock with a lower price that may be consolidating. (Avoid assignment on the short side).


 Creating a List of Favorable Stocks


Logging into the Optionsanalysis web site brings you to the Welcome page. You would normally use the most recent date. We are going to use a date in the recent past to show what happens to the calendar spread after the trade is put on and saved.
  • Select 4-17-00 in the date selector lists.
  • Click All Dates if this date is not shown.
  • This causes the Welcome page to reload with all online dates selectable (2 years worth).
  • Select 4-17-00 and click Create A Rank Lists.

Create A Rank List is a tool to narrow our search for calendar spreads to a list of stocks that have our desired characteristics. The purpose of the tool is to create a stock list that we can input into another Optionsanalysis tool: Create A Search. We do this, because Create A Search is limited to 2000 trade searches. Only a few stocks (200 or less) in the Create A Search input list can max out the trade search limit. Create A Rank List, on the other hand, has no search limit.

Create A Rank List can be used unwisely. Poorly chosen rankings can take a long time (> 2 minutes) and overload the server frustrating all online users. The steps shown below allow a user to rank all the online stocks for desired characteristics, and perform these rankings using reasonable server resources.

First, use the Explosive or Quiet buttons to narrow the entire online stock list down to a manageable set. Explosive and Quiet are the two fastest responding rankers in the Create A Rank List web page. We will narrow the stock list by deciding on the stock price trading range we want to investigate. At the bottom right of the web page is the maximum and minimum price filters. We want low priced, but tradable stocks, so we set the min to 20 and the max to 80.

If you are creating a stock list where statistical volatility is not a concern, the next thing you would do is:

  • Select "unity" and "unity" for the SV/SV selections to the left of the Explosive button.
  • Click Explosive.
No SV ranking will occur, but the stock lists will be filtered with the max and min price ranges selected. The default ranking when unity/unity SV is chosen is a ranking by option trading volume. A high volume ranking is attractive, since we want to trade stocks where there is a high probability that we will fill our trades quickly and near our desired option prices.

However, in the calendar spread case we choose the 10 day SV / 90 day SV ranker. The min and max prices of 20 and 80 are also selected. We will click the Quiet button option. We want high volatility stocks that have recently settled down. We must make other choices before clicking the Quiet button.

  • The input list at the top of the page is selected to be All Stock Options.
  • The output list is selected to be Rank List 1.
  • We see that the Quiet button uses the B option for selecting the number of stocks to save in the output list.
  • Select 500 stocks next to the blue B.
  • The other options below the table are good at their default values.
  • Click the Quiet button.
  • A ranked list should start loading in less than 5 sec.
  • Only the top 200 are actually displayed.
We are now ready to make another rank list based on implied volatility.
  • Click the browser back button to return to the ranker.
  • Choose Rank List 1 (which we just created) as input.
  • Choose Rank List 2 as output.
  • We are going to use the Percentile Implied Volatility ranker.
This ranker uses output option A to decide how many stocks to save in the output. A percentile ranking means the IV values are placed into 20 categories where 20 represents the highest historical IV values and 1 the lowest. Stocks are kept in the output lists depending on which category their IV falls into and how many categories you choose. We will leave it at the default "top category" (Number 20). Click "Free Rankers Help" on the Optionsanalysis page to learn more about categories.

Click the expensive button for Percentile IVs. This button can take a long time to create a ranking. The expensive button for Percentile IVs with a 500 stock input list and low server usage takes less than one minute to complete. The amount of time needed by the percentile IV ranker increases dramatically when the input stock list has more than 500 stocks.

After clicking the button, the Percentile IV ranking appears and the top category has been saved in Rank List 2. The first 10 stocks in this ranking appear below:

Unusually High priced 7-150 Day options relative to their own past USING PERCENTILES
Rank7-150 Day Option Implied Volatility Ranking for 04-17-00 (since 10-20-99)
Stock OptionHighLowLastChg1-20 rank
1) Lucent Technologies, Inc. (LU)81.32%34.43%62.17%- 8.13%20
2) Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD)61.11% 9.17%48.03%- 2.31%20
3) 3Com Corporation (COMS)109.15%48.04%103.46%+21.31%20
4) Disney (The Walt) Holding Co. (DIS)53.97%30.25%49.61%+ 1.91%20
5) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)48.20%27.76%46.07%- 2.13%20
6) Costco Companies, Inc. (COST)67.03%39.70%63.82%+ 7.80%20
7) Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO)44.26%27.44%41.78%- 2.49%20
8) Knight/Trimark Group Inc (NITE)136.03%71.06%136.03%+11.13%20
9) Intuit Corporation (INTU)134.34%66.37%111.73%-22.61%20
10) Medtronic, Inc. (MDT)52.92%35.02%52.92%+ 3.21%20

April 17, 2000 was a very volatile day. Over 100 stocks from our original 500 are in the top 20 category. The ranking again resorts to a volume ranking when stocks have the same category. Hence, the above top 10 stocks all tend to be well known companies.

 Performing a Calendar Spread Search

  • Click the Welcome Page link at the top of the ranking page.
  • Check to see that the date on the Welcome Page is still 4-17-00.
  • Click Create A Search.
  • Choose Rank List 2 as the input list in the "Select for trades in" option in Create A Search.
  • Checkbox "Buy ATM Put TSpread" in the center column of the strategy matrix.
  • Uncheckbox the four temporal filters below the strategy matrix to turn them on.

We get to decide the minimum days to the near expiration month, the maximum days to the far expiration month and the minimum and maximum days between calendar legs. Our choices are 60, 180, 60 and 120. We will expect trades to be found with expirations and time spreads between July and November.

  • Uncheckbox "Near month IV must be 10% higher than far month IV" further down the page below Implied Volatility Filters.
  • Change the default 25% number to 10%.
This change satisfies our Number 1 criteria, above, when looking for a Calendar Spread trade. At the bottom, for our Calendar Spread trade.
  • Set both to strike variations to 0% under allowed strike variation.
We want ATM option trades. We do not want the searcher to look far from the current stock price.

Click the "Search 4-17-00 Now" button.

The top three results are shown below.

I searched 429 trades and found 10 satisfying your criteria.
Option search for Criteria Name on date : 04-17-00
Rk Stk OpMnth Strategy Composed of Stkprc Prjct'd Price Cost Max Profit Max Risk Prob Exp Profit Odds
1 SLB AUG00 Buy ATM Put TSpread 1x00NOV 70P@ 9 5/8
-1x00AUG 70P@ 9
68 5/16 68 5/16 in 0 days $ 62.50 $ 574.66 $ -149.22 60.65% $115.13 4.7 to 1
2 DCLK JUL00 Buy ATM Put TSpread 1x00OCT 70P@ 22 3/4
-1x00JUL 70P@ 19 7/8
59 13/16 59 13/16 in 0 days $ 287.50 $ 1012.52 $ -374.21 56.26% $162.16 2.7 to 1
3 NITE JUL00 Buy ATM Put TSpread 1x00OCT 35P@ 11 3/8
-1x00JUL 35P@ 9 5/8
30 1/16 30 1/16 in 0 days $ 175.00 $ 437.46 $ -218.36 44.30% $12.70 1.2 to 1

The second trade uses strikes too far from the current close and is not considered. The first (Schlumberger) and third (Knight/Trimark Group Inc.) trades look attractive. If the stock goes up the most the trades can loose is the net purchase cost of the trade($62and $175, respectively).If the stock goes down the losses are limited to $149 and $218, respectively. The maximum profits are $575 and $437 if the stocks close at the strike values when the near month option expires and the short put was not assigned.

Click the strategy link in each case. We will use the NITE trade to show the risk graph.

The NITE ATM put Calendar spread risk graph, created by the Optionsanalysis.com risk graph tool, is shown below.





The y-axis scale is for the stock price. There are two x-axis scales. The left x-axis scale is time. The value plotted in the left graph is the high-low-open-close bars for the stock price. The right x-axis scale is profit and/or loss of the option trade. The four lines plotted are the potential profit and losses of the option trade as the stock price varies. Each line is for a different time in the future. The graph is only valid up to the expiration of the near month July option. The black line shows the final possible outcomes of the option trade as the stock price is varied between 20 and 90 at the July expiration date. The trade resembles a Buy ATM put butterfly in that there is a profit region, dependent on high implied Volatility. Losses are finite. The big difference is that the calendar spread trade only requires the purchase of two options instead of the four options needed for the butterfly.
  • Click "Save Option Trade" at the bottom of the Risk Graph Page.
  • The NITE calendar trade just described was a trade recommendation in the Optionetics Publication:CalendarFinder.
  • The saved trades are at the top of the Optionsanalysis Welcome Page.
If you click each trade, a Risk graph of the trade is created for the most recent trading date available on the web site. At the time this example was created (5-27-00), the SLB calendar spread trade was profitable with 84 days left to go and was capturing time premium while the NITE calendar spread trade was breaking even due to further decreases in NITE stock.